Norwep monitor

Methodology

Data sources, calculations and caveats

The Norwep monitor pulls together aggregated indicators for export prognosis, Norwegian Continental Shelf activity, employment and annual accounts. This page documents where the data comes from, how the indicators are derived, and what limitations the user should keep in mind when reading the front-page numbers.

Prognosis monitor

Norwegian energy supply chain exports

Total exports from the Norwegian supplier industry to the global energy sector, broken down by oil and gas, offshore wind, CCS, hydrogen and other renewables, for the years 2020–2026.

Data sources

How it is calculated

  • For 2020–2025 the figures shown are the mapped historical values, unchanged.
  • For 2026 the figure is presented as three scenarios rather than a single point forecast: low (NOK 189 bn), base (the live SSB-driven central estimate) and high (NOK 226 bn).
  • The base scenario is built bottom-up: oil and gas is the 2025 mapped value scaled by the YTD growth rate from SSB export-market P128, and offshore wind, CCS, hydrogen and other renewables are all carried forward at their 2025 levels.
  • The low scenario is calculated as 2025 exports × 0.95. The high scenario applies the compound annual growth rate from 2020 to 2025 to the 2025 level.
  • For offshore wind, the low scenario assumes -7.5 percent growth from the 2025 level, the base scenario holds it flat and the high scenario assumes +15 percent. In the low and high scenarios the remaining categories are scaled to match the scenario's total export path; in the base scenario each category is taken directly from the SSB projection and carried-forward levels.

Caveats

  • The simple renewables assumptions (offshore wind, CCS, hydrogen and other renewables all carried forward at 2025 levels in the base scenario) ignore within-year volatility — the YTD signal is currently too thin to extrapolate segment detail from.
  • Estimate rows are visually flagged in the chart with reduced opacity and an outline.
  • Mapped historical values rely on Econ Management's manual categorisation and are revised as new annual figures land.
  • SSB P128 is a total petroleum-oriented export turnover proxy, not a clean oil and gas category split.

Prognosis monitor

Method for 2026 forecast scenarios

The 2026 export estimate is presented as three scenarios rather than a single point forecast.

Data sources

  • Historical export levels are based on the existing export dataset used in the figure.
  • Market interpretation is informed by Rystad Energy offshore market data, IEA World Energy Investment and Renewables outlooks, Wood Mackenzie market signals and DNV's Energy Transition Outlook.

How it is calculated

  • The base scenario is the live central estimate, built bottom-up from SSB year-to-date export-market growth (oil and gas) with offshore wind, CCS, hydrogen and other renewables carried forward at their 2025 levels. It is broadly consistent with a market-based consensus estimate for the relevant international offshore supplier market for Norwegian companies, based on signals from Rystad Energy, IEA, Wood Mackenzie and DNV, which indicates only modest growth from 2025 to 2026.
  • The low scenario assumes a 5 percent decline from the internally consistent 2025 export level. With 2025 exports at NOK 199 billion, this gives a low-case forecast of approximately NOK 189 billion in 2026. This scenario reflects downside risks from weaker global upstream investment, delayed offshore project sanctioning, cost pressure, offshore wind cancellations and a stronger Norwegian krone.
  • The high scenario assumes that the strong export growth observed in recent years continues into 2026. Exports increased from NOK 105 billion in 2020 to NOK 199 billion in 2025, corresponding to an annual growth rate of approximately 13.6 percent. Applying this growth rate to the 2025 level gives a high-case forecast of approximately NOK 226 billion in 2026.
  • For offshore wind, the scenario-specific assumptions are -7.5 percent (low), flat (base) and +15 percent (high) from the 2025 level. In the low and high scenarios the remaining categories are scaled to match the total scenario path; in the base scenario each category comes directly from the SSB projection and carried-forward levels.

Caveats

  • The scenarios should be interpreted primarily as alternative total export paths; only offshore wind has an explicit segment-level growth assumption.
  • The low scenario is calculated as 2025 exports × 0.95.
  • The high scenario is calculated using the compound annual growth rate from 2020 to 2025: (199 / 105)^(1/5) - 1 ≈ 13.6 percent.

Prognosis monitor

NCS supplier turnover

Turnover from petroleum-oriented supplier industry and extraction services delivered to the Norwegian home market, used as a proxy for Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) activity.

Data sources

How it is calculated

  • Monthly SSB values are summed to annual totals for 2020–2025 and converted from NOK million to NOK billion.
  • The 2026 forecast uses the same year-to-date month window as the export forecast.
  • The YTD growth rate is calculated as current-year YTD turnover divided by previous-year YTD turnover, minus one.
  • The 2026 NCS estimate is the 2025 full-year home-market turnover scaled by that YTD growth rate.

Caveats

  • NCS is shown as a total only; it is not split into oil and gas, offshore wind, CCS, hydrogen or other renewable categories.
  • SSB monthly figures can be revised after first publication, so historical and forecast values may move when data is refreshed.
  • The YTD extrapolation assumes the early-year growth pattern is representative for the full year.

Employment monitor

Employment across Norwep and other suppliers

Monthly headcount across Norwep member business units and the non-member part of the broader oil and gas supplier population, from January 2017 onwards, with an optional regional breakdown.

Data sources

How it is calculated

  • Norwep members are identified by member-company org number and use the existing Norwep business-unit mapping.
  • The broader supplier population is loaded from the workbook at company level, then mapped to Brønnøysundregistrene business units via each underenhet's parent company org number.
  • The 'Other suppliers' series excludes companies that are Norwep members, to avoid double counting.
  • When a region (fylke) is selected, only business units registered in that region are included in both series.
  • Change figures are the difference in the monthly total versus 1, 6 or 12 months earlier within each series.

Caveats

  • Counts include all employees of each business unit, also non-Norwep-related activities where the same legal entity operates in multiple segments.
  • Companies in the supplier workbook without a matched business unit or without employee history are excluded from the monthly series.
  • The mappings may lag corporate restructurings (mergers, demergers, transfers between legal entities).
  • Employee figures are updated as A-meldinger are filed; the most recent month can be revised upwards for a few weeks.

Annual accounts

Financials — revenue and operating margin

Share of Norwep member companies with growth, decline or unchanged revenue and operating margin between the two most recent fully reported financial years.

Data sources

How it is calculated

  • For each member company we compare revenue and operating margin in the latest reported year against the prior year.
  • Companies are classified as growth, unchanged or decline on each metric; the share bars show the count in each bucket divided by the total number of companies with comparison data.
  • The monitor shows aggregated shares only; individual companies and ranked lists are not displayed.
  • Operating margin from the database is normalised to percentage points (e.g. 17.6 = 17.6 %) before comparison and display.

Caveats

  • Member companies without two consecutive years of reported accounts are excluded entirely from the comparison.
  • Annual accounts only become available the year after the financial year ends — this view is therefore lagged relative to the monthly employment series.
  • Operating margin is calculated from the filed accounts and can be sensitive to one-off items, write-downs and changes in revenue recognition.