Norwep prognosis monitor
Prognosis for NCS and Export
Export
Exports by category
Mapped energy supplier exports by category, with oil and gas 2026 projected from SSB export-market YTD growth.
Base export scenario 2026
NOK 198.8 bn
Consensus/base path; low and high scenarios are shown in the chart
Export YTD growth
-0.1%
Jan-Apr 2026: NOK 57,342 m · Jan-Apr 2025: NOK 57,418 m
Exports by category, 2020–2026: three forecast scenarios
Source: Econ Intel
Exports from the Norwegian energy supply chain grew significantly through 2025. Based on export data for the first four months of 2026, exports are broadly flat versus the same period in 2025. This comes despite an 11 percent strengthening of the Norwegian krone compared with the first four months of 2025. Measured in USD, exports have therefore increased even though the stronger krone has, in isolation, weakened Norwegian cost competitiveness. There is still considerable uncertainty around where total exports will land in 2026, and the gap between the scenarios is largely driven by geopolitical developments.
Method note
The 2026 estimate is shown as three scenarios rather than a single forecast. The base scenario adds oil and gas projected from SSB year-to-date export-market growth for petroleum-oriented supplier turnover, with offshore wind, CCS, hydrogen and other renewables all carried forward at their 2025 levels. The low scenario assumes a 5 percent decline from 2025 exports, giving approximately NOK 189 billion, and reflects downside risks such as weaker global upstream investment, delayed offshore projects, cost pressure, offshore wind cancellations and currency effects. The high scenario assumes that the strong 2020–2025 export growth continues, giving approximately NOK 226 billion. Offshore wind has explicit scenario assumptions, while the remaining categories are scaled to match the total scenario path.
NCS
Norwegian Continental Shelf supplier turnover
Total home-market turnover for petroleum-oriented supplier industry and extraction services, aggregated from monthly SSB data.
Estimated NCS 2026
NOK 414.5 bn
Home-market turnover forecast
NCS 2025
NOK 428.4 bn
Full-year home-market turnover from SSB
NCS YTD growth
-3.2%
Jan-Apr 2026: NOK 130,682 m · Jan-Apr 2025: NOK 135,050 m
NCS turnover, 2020–2026
Source: Econ Intel
From 2020 to 2026, the suppliers' home market almost doubled. The growth was largely driven by higher investment on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, partly supported by the temporary tax package adopted during the Covid-19 pandemic. We now appear to be past the peak: turnover in the first four months of 2026 was slightly lower than in the first four months of 2025.
Data has been collected, processed and quality assured by Econ Intel.